According to the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA), South Africa’s vaccination drive is in a race against time as it expects the fourth wave to hit the country in December 2021 and on into January 2022.
Based on the group’s analysis of the Covid-19 experiences in SA and several other countries at different stages of managing the pandemic, ASSA believes that there is sufficient evidence to suggest that a fourth wave is likely to occur in December. ASSA added that the severity of the fourth wave would likely depend on whether South Africa achieves its vaccination targets.
As of Sunday, 24 October 2021, only 29% of SA’s adult population was fully vaccinated against a target of 67% by the end of 2021.
To be considered fully vaccinated, unvaccinated South Africans will have to get their first jab before the end of October and then apply a 42-day waiting period before getting their second vaccine. People are considered fully vaccinated two weeks after their second Pfizer dose or after their single Johnson & Johnson jab.
Member of the ASSA Covid-19 Working Group, actuary Adam Lowe said that while it is unlikely that South Africa will avoid a fourth wave of infections, the severity will most likely depend on whether the country is successful in building immunity in the majority of the adult population through widespread vaccination. This is especially true in the elderly and other vulnerable groups.
However, achieving this would require many people to come forward very quickly to be vaccinated, he said.
“The logistics of the rollout would have to be significantly enhanced to ensure vaccines reach especially the rural and less technologically enabled population, as well as overcoming the vaccine hesitancy and outright anti-vaccine sentiment which still exists.”
Lowe explained that in modelling the Covid-19 pandemic, it has become evident that the key drivers determining the waves of Covid-19 infection are:
- The infectiousness and transmissibility of the particular virus variant prevalent in a population;
- Population behaviour that influences the spread of the virus, such as gatherings, mask-wearing, and social movement; and
- The degree of immunity already presents in the population, whether acquired through vaccination or previous infection with the virus.
Lowe cautioned vaccinated people against letting their guard down too quickly because one of the potential triggers of a severe fourth wave that cannot be disregarded is the potential of a new variant emerging against which the existing vaccine could provide insufficient protection.
Sources: MSN, BusinessTech
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