Professional services firm, PwC, has published its latest economic outlook for South Africa, which includes forecast scenarios for the country’s lockdown levels and their probable impact on the economy.
PwC’s economic scenarios for 2021 are strongly influenced by different perspectives concerning the third wave of Covid-19 infections.
On 27 June, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a move to lockdown level 4 which included the banning of alcohol sales, social gatherings (excluding funerals) and leisure travel to and from Gauteng. These regulations were relaxed on 27 July as the country moved to lockdown level 3.
PwC compiled three scenarios for how South Africa’s lockdown levels could move until the end of the year. Both PwC’s baseline and downside assumptions consider a likely fourth wave of infections starting around the December holidats.
Baseline scenario
- Level 3 ‘lite’ lockdown to be in place for the rest of August as Covid-19 numbers improve.
- Level 1 in September as the third wave infections taper out, continued through October and November.
- Level 2 lockdown in December as infections start to rise, starting the fourth wave.
Downside scenario
- Level 3 ‘lite’ lockdown to mid-August with the possibility of more restrictions being added if infection numbers do not improve.
- Level 2 lockdown in September and October.
- Level 1 lockdown in November provides a brief reprieve.
- Level 2 lockdown in December as infections start to rise, starting the fourth wave.
Upside scenario
- Level 2 lockdown as early as mid-August as numbers improve.
- Level 1 in September as third wave infections taper out, continuing to October.
- No restrictions in November.
- Level 1 re-introduced in December as a precautionary move to delay the fourth wave.
Sources: BusinessTech
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